Homebuyers say they feel good about the market, then sit on their hands. The spending is happening in homes people already own.
Here's the number that should stop every builder mid-scroll: nearly two-thirds of consumers surveyed by COGNITION Smart Data in a 2027 planning report say they do not plan to buy a home next year.
It isn't a sentiment issue. Nearly 60% of homebuyers feel positive about the housing market. However, optimism doesn’t translate to purchase intent.
The math explains why. Builders are still building to the traditional American Dream, and buyers are still focused on a detached single-family home with 71.6% focused on a. More than half are targeting $200,000 to $400,000, in a market where the national average home sells for more than $400,000. They want a price point that is quickly disappearing.
Since those price points don’t exist, homeowners are choosing not to move and keeping that money where it is.
While 78.5% of homeowners do not plan to move in the next year, they still have money to spend. So, 68.7% report to COGNITION Smart Data that they are investing in upgrades, and 66.3% say they'll pay cash for them. Only 12.9% plan to refinance, showing that the money is there.
Builders can feel the shift—54.9% expect more remodeling and home improvement work in 2027. But, the best way that they find work today is through referrals and local advertising, tied at 44.1% each. That advertising worked well when there were new home buyers, but won’t work for those arranging home improvements to manage rising costs and to improve comfort.
The next growth market isn't a buyer. It's the homeowner who isn't going anywhere, and is willing to pay cash to make their home better. Builders who stop waiting for a buyer and start selling to that homeowner will own 2027.
Jennifer Castenson currently serves as the vice president of COGNITION Smart Data and market analytics at Green Builder Media. She also serves as contributing writer to Forbes, reporting on innovation in the built environment.
Six of 10 Consumers Aren't Buying a Home in 2027
Homebuyers say they feel good about the market, then sit on their hands. The spending is happening in homes people already own.
Here's the number that should stop every builder mid-scroll: nearly two-thirds of consumers surveyed by COGNITION Smart Data in a 2027 planning report say they do not plan to buy a home next year.
The math explains why. Builders are still building to the traditional American Dream, and buyers are still focused on a detached single-family home with 71.6% focused on a. More than half are targeting $200,000 to $400,000, in a market where the national average home sells for more than $400,000. They want a price point that is quickly disappearing.
Since those price points don’t exist, homeowners are choosing not to move and keeping that money where it is.
While 78.5% of homeowners do not plan to move in the next year, they still have money to spend. So, 68.7% report to COGNITION Smart Data that they are investing in upgrades, and 66.3% say they'll pay cash for them. Only 12.9% plan to refinance, showing that the money is there.
Builders can feel the shift—54.9% expect more remodeling and home improvement work in 2027. But, the best way that they find work today is through referrals and local advertising, tied at 44.1% each. That advertising worked well when there were new home buyers, but won’t work for those arranging home improvements to manage rising costs and to improve comfort.
The next growth market isn't a buyer. It's the homeowner who isn't going anywhere, and is willing to pay cash to make their home better. Builders who stop waiting for a buyer and start selling to that homeowner will own 2027.
You can reprint this blog. Simply include this link with your attribution.
Learn more from COGNITION Smart Data to drive your strategy. Use it to make decisions that meet the market where they are with products, messaging and innovation. Subscribe to COGNITION Smart Data.
By Jennifer Castenson
Jennifer Castenson currently serves as the vice president of COGNITION Smart Data and market analytics at Green Builder Media. She also serves as contributing writer to Forbes, reporting on innovation in the built environment.Also Read