Homes today are roughly 238% more expensive than in 1990.Think of all that money Millennials and Gen Z could have saved if they bought a house instead of building one with blocks!
But timing isn't just a punchline. It's the single biggest variable in the affordability equation.
COGNITION Smart Data shows that more than half of Baby Boomers (56.7%) bought their current home over a decade ago, locking in prices and interest rates that today's buyers can only dream about.
Meanwhile, the majority of Millennials (52.6%) and Gen X (43.2%) entered the market 3–5 years ago (right around the post-pandemic price surge).
Gen Z, still early in their homeownership journey, is split between recent purchases and that same 3–5 year window.
(It's worth noting that for Gen X and Baby Boomers, this reflects their current home — not necessarily their first. Many may be on their second or third home purchase.)
But could any of them afford their home if they had to buy it today?
Baby Boomers are often quick to remind younger buyers that today's 6-7% mortgage rates are nothing compared to the double-digit rates of the 1980s. And technically, they're right. But that argument conveniently leaves out the other half of the equation: Homes are 3.4 times more expensive than when most Boomers bought.
It's telling that COGNITION Smart Data found Baby Boomers, the generation that bought earliest and arguably got the best deals, to be the most pessimistic. 32.3% say they'd be "very unlikely" to purchase their home in today's market.
The people sitting on the most equity are also the ones most convinced that today's market feels out of reach. The numbers back it up. Home prices continue to stay at historic highs, mortgage rates have made monthly payments unaffordable, and inventory remains low driving prices even higher.
The conditions that made homeownership accessible for previous generations simply don't exist in the same way today. And the data goes deeper than what's shown here.
Like this COGNITION Hot Take? We have more! Unlock the data driving the industry’s sustainability transformation to build smarter and sell faster. Subscribe to COGNITION Smart Data.
Victoria Muharsky is an ESG specialist at Green Builder Media, where she leads the ESG for Building Working Group. Under her guidance, the group has successfully overseen the release of the groundbreaking ESG Defining Principles. Crafted collaboratively by industry experts, these guidelines are revolutionizing the homebuilding sector's approach to ESG and sustainability.
You Bought Your Home at the Right Time. Could You Do It Again?
The affordability crisis hits differently when it's your own home you can't afford.
Millennials and Gen Z often joke that instead of playing with blocks in the late 1990s they should have been buying real estate. According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, median home sale prices through the 1990s ranged from roughly $120,000 at the start of the decade to around $161,000 by 1999. Compare that to today's median home sales price of $405,300.
But timing isn't just a punchline. It's the single biggest variable in the affordability equation.
COGNITION Smart Data shows that more than half of Baby Boomers (56.7%) bought their current home over a decade ago, locking in prices and interest rates that today's buyers can only dream about.
Meanwhile, the majority of Millennials (52.6%) and Gen X (43.2%) entered the market 3–5 years ago (right around the post-pandemic price surge).
Gen Z, still early in their homeownership journey, is split between recent purchases and that same 3–5 year window.
(It's worth noting that for Gen X and Baby Boomers, this reflects their current home — not necessarily their first. Many may be on their second or third home purchase.)
But could any of them afford their home if they had to buy it today?
Baby Boomers are often quick to remind younger buyers that today's 6-7% mortgage rates are nothing compared to the double-digit rates of the 1980s. And technically, they're right. But that argument conveniently leaves out the other half of the equation: Homes are 3.4 times more expensive than when most Boomers bought.
It's telling that COGNITION Smart Data found Baby Boomers, the generation that bought earliest and arguably got the best deals, to be the most pessimistic. 32.3% say they'd be "very unlikely" to purchase their home in today's market.
The people sitting on the most equity are also the ones most convinced that today's market feels out of reach. The numbers back it up. Home prices continue to stay at historic highs, mortgage rates have made monthly payments unaffordable, and inventory remains low driving prices even higher.
The conditions that made homeownership accessible for previous generations simply don't exist in the same way today. And the data goes deeper than what's shown here.
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Like this COGNITION Hot Take? We have more! Unlock the data driving the industry’s sustainability transformation to build smarter and sell faster. Subscribe to COGNITION Smart Data.
By Victoria Muharsky
Victoria Muharsky is an ESG specialist at Green Builder Media, where she leads the ESG for Building Working Group. Under her guidance, the group has successfully overseen the release of the groundbreaking ESG Defining Principles. Crafted collaboratively by industry experts, these guidelines are revolutionizing the homebuilding sector's approach to ESG and sustainability.