While his research clearly coveys the great urgency for decarbonization, the numbers also indicate that it is still possible to avert the worst impacts of climate change. “We’ve uncovered important findings over the last decade that aren’t fully appreciated in public,” Mann explained in a recent interview. “As we decrease carbon emissions, the planet will stop warming. There will be some committed warming due to the thermal inertia of oceans, but the thought that the planet will continue to warm even when we reduce pollution is actually outdated.”
According to Mann, when carbon is emitted into atmosphere, the oceans and biosphere uptake about 50 percent, and the other and 50 percent remains in the atmosphere. But when we stop emitting carbon, the oceans will absorb the carbon in the atmosphere, thereby reducing total pollution and offsetting committed warming.
Translation: Even though there will be some long-term impacts from the melting of ice sheets, rising sea levels, and ocean acidification, as we decarbonize, we’ll see immediate positive results.
Spurred by optimism, Mann is focusing his attention on reclaiming the climate narrative. “The old climate war is ending,” he asserts. “The assault on climate science by fossil fuel interests is effectively over,” Mann asserts. “People, corporations, governments, academic institutions, and investors all understand that climate change is real, and that we must do something about it.”
Nonetheless, he sees a troubling new phase emerging in the climate battle, defined by inaction.
The “inactivists,” as Mann describes them, are pursuing new tactics, including:
Mann’s situational assessment: “We have all of the tools and technology that we need to solve for climate change. We have existing solutions that are carbon friendly in key industries like energy, transportation, industry, and buildings. What we’re lacking is political willpower.”
But he believes that the tides are turning, mainly due to the youth climate movement, which has recentered the international dialogue on sustainability and climate action; the social justice movement, which is proving to be a cultural turning point forcing a dramatic change in public awareness; and the political tailwinds coming from the Biden administration, which is advancing the boldest climate agenda ever proposed and implementing climate action across all levels of government.
“We’re back on international stage playing a leadership role, putting pressure on other countries and creating an international consensus, which is important as we approach the next international climate conference in Glasgow in November, 2021,” he says.
What else is driving his hopefulness, and what can each of us do to facilitate climate action?
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