Housing 2.0 instructor Sam Rashkin, former chief architect at DOE's Building Technologies Office, lays out the building blocks and low- to no-cost strategies for delivering net zero homes at a lower price. Examples include relocating the water heater for compact plumbing runs and mass customizing designs from repeatable building blocks.
00:00:02:21 - 00:00:26:24
Mike Collignon: All right. Hello, everyone. Welcome to housing 2.0. This is our fourth virtual seminar that examines how to consistently optimize five key housing user experiences. Now today's seminar is going to focus on getting to zero for lower cost. We're going to share some tips and some tricks with you to help you build net zero homes and communities for a higher profit.
00:00:26:25 - 00:00:43:01
Mike Collignon: I just hope that you'll remember what we say seen as how this is memory day and all. Now my name is Mike Collignon and I'm the House of 2.0 Program Manager. And if at any point you have questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to me via the chat box. Or you can also reach out to me by email.
00:00:43:02 - 00:01:03:29
Mike Collignon: I'm going to put that email address into the chat box in just a little while. You know who has forgotten more about housing than I know Sam. He's formerly the chief architect at Building Technologies office, but now is focused on creating and teaching the content for the housing 2.0 program. That content is based largely on Sam's latest book, housing 2.0 Disruption Survival Guide.
00:01:04:00 - 00:01:30:10
Mike Collignon: The full program was established to help empower you, our building professionals, to design and construct higher performance, healthier and more sustainable homes at a fraction of the cost. Sam is going to lead us through today's seminar and also address your questions at the end. Now, before we get started, I want to tell you about our memorable sponsors. The first is Schneider Electric, who is driving the digital transformation of modern homes with smart and sustainable energy solutions for ultimate comfort and energy efficiency.
00:01:30:14 - 00:01:58:13
Mike Collignon: They're connected home ecosystem of smart energy management solutions provides digital control of energy use throughout a home from the grid via their smart electrical panel to their connected wiring devices. Next, we have Genco Solar. They are a leading PV module manufacturer and energy storage system integrator. The company has deployed approximately 110GW of their Eagle modules in 160 countries globally, including more than 17GW right here in the United States.
00:01:58:15 - 00:02:21:28
Mike Collignon: Eagle storage brings together the best energy storage technology for turnkey hardware and energy storage services. And finally, we have Panasonic Healthy Indoor Living Solutions. They're helping builders across the country differentiate themselves with powerful, code compliant and cost effective indoor air quality solutions that provide a safer environment for home buyers. Now, during the course of today's presentation, you can submit questions for Sam.
00:02:21:29 - 00:02:40:05
Mike Collignon: Simply use that questions box inside the go to webinar panel. I'm going to review those questions and pose them to Sam after his presentation. All right. Time to hand it over to a guy whose name is. That's right. I remember you. Sam Raskin.
00:02:40:08 - 00:03:13:22
Sam Rashkin: Hey. Thank you, Mike, and welcome everyone like Mike. I'm incredibly grateful for our sponsors. They are carefully curated to align with our interest to help housing professionals bring the best homes to American homebuyers. So today, topic is really important to us. Zero for lower cost. We're dedicated to zero and high performance builders being industry leaders. And a absolute requirement is that there are homes that people can afford.
00:03:13:22 - 00:03:38:27
Sam Rashkin: So today's today's webinar is really important and is going to pull from a lot of other webinars we've done to try and create a whole framework for how we can do this. So let's start right in with the outline. First we'll review the context. Why, what and how drive housing 2.0. Then we'll go into why there is a lower cost imperative for zero.
00:03:38:27 - 00:04:00:00
Sam Rashkin: And actually all homes then zero building blocks that we need to address to be successful, getting to zero. And then the strategies for how we get zero to lower cost. And like all our webinars, we reserve time at the end for all questions that you have. So let's jump right in and talk about the context. Why, what and how.
00:04:00:02 - 00:04:28:09
Sam Rashkin: So it all starts with the basic data of extensive research where people spend their time and what we find. We look at all the places we we go to every day where where we live every day home, our residents, is where life happens with their 70% of our lives. And if I take a guess where we're at post-Covid, since these were done way before Covid, probably the numbers are getting closer to 75% of our time.
00:04:28:12 - 00:04:53:23
Sam Rashkin: Every day is in our home. And so what housing 2.0 is about is homes where life happens better. How do we look at holistically? Housing is a system much way. The high performance building science industry will look at the houses, a system. We look at housing as a system. It's the ultimate consumer product. And how do we make sure the high performance zero energy loans are industry leaders?
00:04:53:23 - 00:05:21:17
Sam Rashkin: Are it comes to user experience. So what we do is recognize a framework for how we can do this. There are five user experiences, five strategies and 160 best practices that we can deploy to consistently deliver a better user experience. Now, if all we do is focus on one of those strategies high performance for zero energy, it's not likely this stool is going to stand up.
00:05:21:17 - 00:05:49:24
Sam Rashkin: So that's why for us, it's critical that this framework addresses the comprehensive set of experiences every home buyer expects community design, performance, quality, and sales. They may not verbalize it this way, but this is what expectations are. So how do we get there? Is the essence of this program is a first cost business model. And then there is a housing 2.0 business model.
00:05:49:25 - 00:06:44:15
Sam Rashkin: And the first cost traditional business model. US optimization is done by minimizing investments and experts and special features and housing 2.0. What we do is we do extensive kind of evaluation of the user experience and where we can identify really transformative user experiences. We make the investments and experts and special features can that can deliver them on budget and the secret sauce to the whole framework and process is what we do after that, where you have costs for material labor and marketing with a traditional first cost business model and housing 2.0, we apply this incredible lens for optimization to get substantial savings from simple, lean quality integrated systems and mass customization.
00:06:44:17 - 00:07:09:11
Sam Rashkin: The result is that you wind up with these cost savings on net, because the savings exceed the extra investment and optimization, and you wind up with this added value, the better user experiences and substantial owner cost savings. So the final step is to translate all this value during the sales process to cell service better homes for lower cost.
00:07:09:12 - 00:07:37:29
Sam Rashkin: We find when we do all the tabulations, that the combination of the added value and cost savings can be 30 to 70% of the cost that we built today. So these are your opportunities. And the key resource for you is a book, housing 2.0 Disruption Survival Guide. You can just take a screenshot of the code on the right to get right to where you can order the book at the Green Builder Media website, but this is the resource.
00:07:37:29 - 00:08:05:10
Sam Rashkin: It has over 400 pages. It has over 360 citations. It has eight expert guest expert essays. It's got hundreds and hundreds of graphs and charts and illustrations is the unique, singular reference on how to optimize user experience and high performance homes. So I hope you do take advantage of this. So let's jump in and look at the zero for lower cost and imperative.
00:08:05:14 - 00:08:31:16
Sam Rashkin: And it all starts with this chart. This is this is everything you need to know about why housing has an affordable crisis and why it's not sustainable. When you look at the median home price in blue and the median household income and the black curve, you cannot have this kind of widening gap between price and income. At some point, the buyer has to be able to pour the house.
00:08:31:17 - 00:08:59:02
Sam Rashkin: And today, over two times the median income is needed to report a home where in 2021 it's even worse today. So it's 144,000 is required to buy a home when the median income is less than $70,000 nationally in the country. And when you look at basically the curve itself, you should also be concerned every time you have a rising peak like this.
00:08:59:03 - 00:09:23:01
Sam Rashkin: In housing prices in the past half century, it's been followed by a very difficult recession. And here we have a historic peak, probably greater than any other preceding that. And that's why many, like experts, including myself, forecasts that there has to be some correction in industry. We don't know how much and how deep it will be. But again, this is not sustainable.
00:09:23:01 - 00:09:52:11
Sam Rashkin: And also of concern is that 2023 was the least affordable year for housing on record. And look at some of the numbers from 2022. This is a Harvard University Joint Center for housing study kind of set of results. Price to income ratio just talked about in 100 largest markets is now greater than 5.0. 3.0 is kind of considered the upper threshold of portability.
00:09:52:17 - 00:10:32:07
Sam Rashkin: Now in 2000, only five markets were fitted and 5.0. As recently as 2019, it was 15 markets, and in 20 2248, half of the 100 largest markets. The price to income ratio is greater than 5.0, and we had all time high price to income ratios and nearly 80% of the 100 largest market 78 and 2022. And so compare that to 2000, when two thirds of the 100 largest markets, that ratio was below 3.0, those in the affordability range.
00:10:32:07 - 00:10:46:29
Sam Rashkin: And so you can see I highlighted at 5.6 is median home sales price of median household income ratio in 2022, compared to 4.1 in 2019. And.
00:10:47:02 - 00:11:17:22
Sam Rashkin: And when you're greater than 5.1, you're considered severely unaffordable. Again that threshold to three. So we're just we're in uncharted territory that something's got a bust. We can't keep going up higher. And so we see it kind of in some of the market indications. No renters just don't see any path for so many of them to how they'll ever get to homeownership, 60% worry they'll never be able to own a home when over 80% want to own one.
00:11:17:22 - 00:11:49:07
Sam Rashkin: And you don't need even to look at the direct housing statistics. Just look at the financial well-being statistics. For American households, 40% can't pay an unexpected $400 expense. Nearly two thirds of living paycheck to paycheck. Over 60% are worried about how to pay for housing next year, and there are a whole host of related indicators that are really scary that have to do with delinquency and car loan payments, rising foreclosures, American to house poor.
00:11:49:09 - 00:12:19:09
Sam Rashkin: The price structure is not working. So this all informs how we look at zero energy. And it starts with first let's look at what are the building blocks to get to zero. And so I'm going to start first with the first thing we know we have to do is optimize energy efficiency. And National Energy Laboratory has a tool called B opt for helping analyze a lot of optimization factors you see on the right for how you can get the least cost.
00:12:19:09 - 00:12:52:26
Sam Rashkin: And you start with one, which is the reference case. Often it's the local code in your state jurisdiction. And when you see this bar chart, the red is your utility bills and the blue is the incremental mortgage or going above the reference case. So in one obviously it's all the utility bills that are the energy related costs. And what we do in optimizations keep trying to make investments in energy efficiency measures that wind up reducing the energy costs greater than the incremental mortgage.
00:12:52:26 - 00:13:17:02
Sam Rashkin: So the costs go down because we get to point two, you have the minimum annual energy costs, cost on the path to zero net energy. You see the increase in the incremental mortgage to pay for those energy measures. But because utility bills go down much greater than an increase, your your energy related costs are lower. And this point is considered the minimum most cost effective point.
00:13:17:03 - 00:13:39:03
Sam Rashkin: But we can still make further investments in efficiency and still be below 0.1, which is the baseline reference case. And so when we do that, the next point is 0.3. That's the take up point where the next incremental investment in energy efficiency is actually costing more than an investment in solar. So point three is just that take off work.
00:13:39:04 - 00:14:05:22
Sam Rashkin: Now you would consider solar again based on these optimization factors that the software can considers. And then point four would be how you can get to net zero energy where you have no we have no energy bills, but your mortgage keeps going up because the extra cost is solar. So you have your producing as much energy with solar as it can as a house consumes on annual basis.
00:14:05:22 - 00:14:43:11
Sam Rashkin: But now your your point may be higher. Your energy related costs may be higher than the point one the reference case. What happens over time is the solar cost keep coming down. So you could be at point one or actually below 0.1 with your net energy cost. And this is what we strive for. And the key thing I make about this analysis that I always am frustrated that's missing, is there's so many other optimization factors that really drive the true cost cycle time, cost of quality with different choices that are made risk, rework, embodied carbon, nonentity benefits, health, comfort, resilience.
00:14:43:13 - 00:15:12:07
Sam Rashkin: There's so many factors. It's it's a much more complicated decision. But hopefully this is this concept helps you understand what we're doing to try to get on the path to net zero, starting with energy efficiency and optimizing. The next thing we have to do is manage risks, because what happens when we go from a low performance to a zero energy enclosure, we go from less insulation to more insulation and the government less air tightness to more air tightness.
00:15:12:07 - 00:15:45:07
Sam Rashkin: So the thermal and airflow through a low performance nonzero energy home is very substantial, and it's reduced tremendously when we do the zero energy solutions, what winds up happening is a byproduct is we create Calder surfaces on the coal side of the assembly inside the outboard layer. So it's drywall and hot climates, and it's the outboard sheathing in coal climates where the coal side will be, and that all this whole dynamic creates much greater risk.
00:15:45:14 - 00:16:13:13
Sam Rashkin: First, moisture, we have more wedding potential with the colder surface and less drawing potential with less heat flow moving through to dry any wetness that might occur while condensation, or particularly through bulk moisture issues. So we have to really manage both moisture almost at a militant kind of level. The next sentimentalist is we have to recognize we have ultra low load homes, so comfort completely changes and is more risky.
00:16:13:16 - 00:16:44:25
Sam Rashkin: We for historically have not been very diligent about our thermal distribution system for heating cooling systems. And now that we create even dramatically lower airflow, will we have good mixing and comfort throughout the home when historically we don't address really good duct delivery systems, the other two have to do with moisture, comfort, shorter cycles in the summer because the sensible loads are so small, will mean we get less accidental demons from the air conditioning system.
00:16:44:25 - 00:17:06:18
Sam Rashkin: So what? We have enough latent load management, keep humidity under control, and similarly on the front and back ends of the seasons, they shrink because again, the sensible loads so much slower and ultra low load homes. So we have no air conditioning for an extended time, maybe into May or June, and it shuts off earlier at the end of summer.
00:17:06:18 - 00:17:27:12
Sam Rashkin: So what happens in the swing seasons to manage the latent loads that are still there. So comfort is a bigger risk in zero energy homes. And lastly, since there's so much more airtight, we have less dilution of contaminants. So managing contaminants and homes is a bigger risk. So it's not that this is bad, it just means we this is what we do when we build zero.
00:17:27:14 - 00:17:56:14
Sam Rashkin: We manage have to manage these risks. And lastly we have to recognize zero energy homes are really configured to stand the test of time to meet expectations for where we have to be in the future. But there are all these hard trends that are acting on on housing that have to also be integrated beyond being efficient. They're incredible increase in frequency, magnitude of disaster occurrences.
00:17:56:14 - 00:18:20:11
Sam Rashkin: So we have to recognize it more disaster risk. Water shortages are profoundly increasing across so much of the country west of the Mississippi. And all this transition to all electric is that's left the station. What are we doing to make sure our homes can adapt to the all electric future? That that's just almost locking for the for the near term.
00:18:20:11 - 00:18:49:18
Sam Rashkin: So these all have to be managed. So this understanding helps configure the key building blocks for how we get to zero energy. One. Recognize that zero energy homes are compelling because they live better. And what we do is first optimize efficiency. We optimize the enclosure. We optimize equipment. We optimize components. It's very basic and it's order of importance enclosure first equipment and components.
00:18:49:23 - 00:19:16:16
Sam Rashkin: Then we manage risks. Worcester Comfort, indoor air quality ones. We just spoke to third. We then also want to make sure future ready. We have homes that are worthy and should last hundreds of years if they're prepared for the future. So we make them disaster ready. We make them water efficient and locations that have risk of of droughts and low water supply.
00:19:16:16 - 00:19:38:23
Sam Rashkin: And we make them electric ready knowing that's where the industry is going. And finally, we just recognize that we have to get on the path to zero with one of any number of solutions. We get to zero with onsite solar. We can use microgrids utility solar carbon offsets. We have lots of options for how we offset offset any residual energy consumption.
00:19:38:23 - 00:19:58:28
Sam Rashkin: After we do all this good work on the front end. These are the building blocks for getting to zero. So zero lower cost strategies. What are we. You know, how do we do this to lower cost. We have this affordability imperative. And we know we have to do get to zero. And I'm going to suggest there are five key strategies.
00:19:58:28 - 00:20:21:10
Sam Rashkin: And if there's a key message here, it's that so much of the focus in the industry is primarily on the energy side of the equation, and that won't get the job done. You need to optimize design. We need to optimize mass customization. We need to optimize then the enclosure and HVAC, which are traditional focal points for getting to zero.
00:20:21:10 - 00:20:46:27
Sam Rashkin: And fifth, we need to optimize productivity. We can't keep building the same way we're building and expect to get to the cost savings, the cost points we need for housing affordability. So we can't just do the enclosure and HVAC and ignore those now. Health will never go away is a critical need for for zero energy homes. But it's not you know, it's just not a strategy for lower cost.
00:20:46:27 - 00:21:10:03
Sam Rashkin: It's something you have to do. So I leave it off the list just to kind of mix any people who might be jumping and objecting where's where's health? It's just a must have. But to get but to get to lower cost strategies that get you there. That's design mass customization really optimizing the enclosure, optimizing the HVAC and really figuring out more productive ways that we can build.
00:21:10:03 - 00:21:36:24
Sam Rashkin: And so this is much, much more all encompassing. It's looking at housing's a system, not just the house as a system like normally do building science. So let's start with design first. And one of the strategies those that attend our design workshops know I'm a big advocate for this natural comfort and a big reason it's free. It costs no more to exploit the free.
00:21:36:27 - 00:22:08:06
Sam Rashkin: Resources of the sun and the wind for natural heating, natural cooling, natural fresh air and natural lighting. And the objection always be here to this is well, I'm getting my lots from the developer a subdivision subdividing of the property and you know I'm stuck. And my answer to you is you're not stuck. Probability is 25% of your lots, while the South real elevation, 25% of lots will have something approximating a south front elevation.
00:22:08:06 - 00:22:35:00
Sam Rashkin: So you should have designs ready to go or strategies for design ready to go to exploit natural comfort for 50% of your lots and either face front or back yards to the south. That's just what we should do. And the key is solar orientation. And it's because that is an absolute must have to optimize access to this.
00:22:35:02 - 00:23:01:13
Sam Rashkin: Solar resources of the sunlight, and also to optimize control of that sunlight. So it's not detrimental in the summer, and it's helpful in the winter and optimize daylight throughout the year. On east west orientations, you have minimum access to that solar resource and minimum control. It's so low in the sky and north orientations are only diffused light. So there's there's no solar resource to leverage.
00:23:01:16 - 00:23:28:22
Sam Rashkin: So the key point about this orientation also is that once you do it and this is a very great concept saying get 100% solar in a subdivision, you get automatically 25% free heating and cooling. And you know, if you're a utility provider, you know, it should be worth a lot to you because maybe you need one fourth of the capacity at the power transformer station because of lower demand for peak cooling.
00:23:28:27 - 00:23:55:14
Sam Rashkin: So that's that's your start. But then you have this whole suite of tools, you know, solar shading, thermal mass, prevailing breeze orientation, window placement with wing walls or casement window, direction that they open and cool roofs to then leverage all the full suite of natural comfort natural heating, natural cooling, natural fresh air and natural lighting. So natural heating is orientation and mass.
00:23:55:14 - 00:24:22:00
Sam Rashkin: Natural cooling uses all of these tools. Natural fresh air's prevailing breeze orientation and window placement and natural lighting is orientation and shading. So it's a this is something we just have to start thinking about. And to show you how this whole concept works, borrow some wonderful charts from good friend Vivian Loftus at Carnegie Mellon. She calls natural comfort environmental surfing all the same thing.
00:24:22:01 - 00:24:46:08
Sam Rashkin: You start at a basic energy load for energy use without high efficiency, which in this case for heating is high in the winter, January and drops to May, starts increasing September back up to January. So that's how your loads will flow. And when you go with high efficiency, reduce those loads significantly and then natural heating takes it down the next level.
00:24:46:08 - 00:25:10:26
Sam Rashkin: So you get about 25 to 75% savings of the remaining heating load after you're efficient. So it's just a it's just a free resource to take right there just by leveraging the sun. When it comes to cooling it, the load profile is the inverse. So it starts out very low and winter and it gets high in the summer.
00:25:10:27 - 00:25:35:12
Sam Rashkin: Now a lot of these charts need derived for commercial buildings. So you still have some. You'll see some cooling load that you wouldn't have in residential. But the key is the concept that you have your big use in the summer months with that high efficiency, with high efficiency, you drop it quite a bit, and then when you go with natural cooling, you virtually just get it down to a small fraction of what it was, 25 to 40% of residual load left.
00:25:35:19 - 00:25:59:06
Sam Rashkin: Once you have high efficient buildings, and then lighting is kind of the same thing with inefficient systems. You have lighting, you can drop it down with much more efficient LED and Vance systems. And then when you have natural lighting and smart controls, you absolutely minimize the requirements, all for free. So that's one side equation is the cost savings.
00:25:59:06 - 00:26:26:27
Sam Rashkin: But the other side is just the superior user experience. With natural comfort, you actually get what you pay for from the window, the view and without natural comfort where you find people have to pull the blinds down and the inconvenience of going up and down with the blinds often results in them being closed all the time. You pay for this big expansive windows for a beautiful view, and just because you didn't leverage natural comfort, it's like wasted effort.
00:26:26:27 - 00:26:56:11
Sam Rashkin: And the same thing with just coziness or comfort. You mean radiant temperatures have 40% greater impact on perceived comfort and just the ambient air that when the sun can virtually charge all the mass in a space? No, the masonry fireplaces, the masonry floors, the tile floors, stone counters, there's so many places where mass exists. Even the drywall in our homes has a meaningful amount of thermal storage.
00:26:56:11 - 00:27:25:07
Sam Rashkin: And when the when the thermal mass can absorb the heat during the day, even the winter overheat. Now you buffer that and release it at night like a thermal battery. So 40% greater comfort with with managing me, running at temperatures and using the sun to kind of charge your home for the best performance. And the natural light itself is just amazing for health, you know, boost vitamin D or seasonal depression.
00:27:25:10 - 00:27:47:24
Sam Rashkin: You sleep better, be more productive. Now all the science and studies will just consistently just point to these huge benefits. It's but it's something we all know. You know, we all want natural light and crave it. And it's for good reason. Nor our bodies are telling us it feels healthier. And so no, subconsciously this is what we should do anyway.
00:27:48:01 - 00:28:15:04
Sam Rashkin: And in absence, again, a good natural comfort solutions. We're stuck with the same problem with the annoying glare. The blinds are drawn. We get no or minimal daylight compared to when we actually manage the solar resource. And we get an abundance of daylight. And you can just see the difference in spaces with windows closed and open 98% home builders designers, architects score natural light top home feature in 2022.
00:28:15:07 - 00:28:38:15
Sam Rashkin: I am dubious of surveys, but it should. It's way up there. Natural light is always a well sought after feature, and then natural feature spaces just look better when it's when it's not overly mid. And we have all those swing season periods. When we have, we can just bring in fresh air and eliminate still air makes the whole house feel different.
00:28:38:16 - 00:29:11:12
Sam Rashkin: You know, we moved us better concentration, better health. So having the ability when we can leverage fresh air to just use the natural wind resource that's best potential is just a huge advantage. So here we have all these superiors experiences free energy, glare free views, period comfort with mean running and temperature optimized natural light, natural fresh air, and all the resilience because these spaces can float so much better even if there's a power failure.
00:29:11:12 - 00:29:34:15
Sam Rashkin: So at zero cost, we get $10,000, tens of thousands of dollars of added value, and tens of thousands of dollars of utility savings over 30 years of a traditional mortgage. That's a lot of value and savings to throw away from zero cost. We have to be better with zero homes. Then we get down to design with right sizing.
00:29:34:15 - 00:30:15:29
Sam Rashkin: And, you know, in our workshops on the design side, we cover a whole litany of how we can leverage space and enhance space. All these best practices. And the key you need to know is that you can easily reduce footprint of your homes for 20 to 40% by leveraging these best practices. And when you do that, like in this example, this is a design I did over 40 years ago, 1400 square feet that I will submit, that is like 1900 square feet, luxurious master suite and closets and storage, a two compartment bathroom, no full living space, a very substantial kitchen like 15ft of counter, a work at home space, front porches.
00:30:15:29 - 00:30:42:26
Sam Rashkin: You get all this in 1400 square feet and again submit that if it lives like 1900 square feet, that's 500ft² of savings at $150 a square foot of hard costs, which are low today. That's $35,000. I just reduced my cost to build the home and the value of added to the home because of how you know how much it delivers a optimized user experience.
00:30:42:26 - 00:31:08:29
Sam Rashkin: Storage, daylight health, fresh air, just indoor outdoor linkages. You know, all the things you talk about and design are all embedded in this to just optimize experience in a home that's right size and we can't afford to throw away 70 $500,000 we can get by. Right sizing and complexity just costs money. Simple is your friend. Floor plan, extra interior.
00:31:09:00 - 00:31:38:21
Sam Rashkin: Again, our design workshops cover these best practices. We go through more detail, but just some examples in that we do a recess into a rectangular footprint. Now we lose, let's say in this case 200ft² have a recess porch, and we've added profitable wall near the side of the recess that our additional wall and foundation. And we do the math and calculate it costs almost $3,000 per square less square feet in a more complicated footprint than a simple footprint.
00:31:38:23 - 00:31:57:27
Sam Rashkin: We have to realize that, simple as our friend, we have to build homes that people can afford. These are just best practices we need to do more of. So I just show you that simple design I just showed you earlier, side by side by a very traditional footprint that has the same specifications three bedrooms, two bars and so forth.
00:31:57:27 - 00:32:30:01
Sam Rashkin: But in the complicated design, you'll see 15 versus six corners and nine more corners. At $1,500, a corner is over $13,000. And you know, these are older costs of it's $2,000 a corner, a more updated cost number that we're going to push $20,000 just to add complexity with no benefit in terms of how the home lives. So we have to keep asking whether we can afford complexity and be diligent about minimizing it.
00:32:30:02 - 00:32:51:28
Sam Rashkin: Now, the roof and the left versus the roof and the right. I think the one that writes about incredibly more beautiful, and we don't even have to talk about all the costs of replacing the complex versus a simple roof. A lot of the discoloration will happen. Is the breeze caught in all these valleys and complicated details? You can see often the water shedding feature of the complicated roof will be much worse.
00:32:51:28 - 00:33:13:00
Sam Rashkin: You have substantial amount of water going down to single points, and there all sorts of issues in terms of the basic function of a roof, which is to shed weather, and the one on the right is like a better solution for shedding weather than the one on the left. So it's cheaper, it's better. We just have to get smarter and specially in zero energy homes.
00:33:13:00 - 00:33:41:19
Sam Rashkin: And finally on design. Want to talk about integrated systems now? First all your. When you have nice simple roofs then recognize two foot dimensions or your friend. All the sheathing products come there and it'll be no difference to the trust manufacturer if that's what you're doing to build a trust, that's 4.87 slope versus five and 12 slope. And and you'll say amount of cutting and waste and time you know can be $1,000, thousands of dollars of savings.
00:33:41:19 - 00:34:09:16
Sam Rashkin: And I'm going to just show you one example where integrated systems just taken to its most diligent and really focused level had Eugene, this was Walsh Construction did a project in Portland, Oregon, where they they already built the first building, this time for the second building they started looking at, can we just optimize this and get some really substantial savings?
00:34:09:16 - 00:34:30:11
Sam Rashkin: So the old footprints on the left for the individual apartments, for the one bedroom apartments, and then you see what they did on the right, and they got it on two foot dimensions. They went to a single bath wet wall, much less wasted circulation space, open layout and increase the storage substantially. It gives you the walking versus a small closet bedroom.
00:34:30:11 - 00:34:49:04
Sam Rashkin: And then when you come in, you have the space and left for a wardrobe closet or a desk, depending on home. Renters or buyers want this apartment. But the key thing is, once you do that, then you can put everything on the two foot dimension. So the drywall, your exterior walls, everything's on two foot dimensions, which means. Let's waste.
00:34:49:05 - 00:35:13:03
Sam Rashkin: Let's let's cutting less time. And then you can see how simple the floor framing layout is. No waste. Everything is just perfectly serving as purpose. Also, I'll call attention to why that fourth ring is going across unit, not from the hallway to the outboard exterior wall, but across unit from one unit to the next unit. And then you see the sheathing layout.
00:35:13:05 - 00:35:38:06
Sam Rashkin: No waste. Very simple. It just everything's so efficient. And then when you have the articulation for architectural interest, it's also done on two foot dimensions, either 2 or 4ft. Everything's into everywhere you go. And I mentioned that they use the floor framing going from one unit to the next, rather than from the hallway to the exterior. That eliminated all the headers on the outside, because no longer is it a structural wall that needs headers.
00:35:38:06 - 00:36:16:09
Sam Rashkin: So that saves framing. And you also notice that cross the hallways, which are 5 to 6ft wide. They just went with a thicker subfloor. And now they get rid of the framing in the hallway and have a plan for mechanicals. Everything is done to optimize the structure for the home, and you wind up with 42% reduction in framing material from the framing in the bottom, which was done for the first building compared to the framing above, which is for the new building that was optimized and you had 16% increase in the whole R value because you went from the wall below for the first building to the wall above for the second, with all the
00:36:16:09 - 00:36:43:26
Sam Rashkin: optimized spacing and insulation, and then a 25% reduction in sheathing. Again, you see the walls and all the cut, sheathing and different pieces that are more wasteful than the than the sheathing plan above for the new design. So the net was that for 1/24 and ash and Portland, Oregon, Walsh construction save 24% of the cost of the building just by integrating structure into the system design.
00:36:43:26 - 00:37:05:01
Sam Rashkin: And the little tweaking on the floor plan also meant for a much better living experience in each unit. So these are big cost members. These are the kind of you can't ignore this. If you're doing zero, you have to be focused, and then you have to start integrating structure and realizing you have choices that will impact your objective for providing conditioned space.
00:37:05:01 - 00:37:31:24
Sam Rashkin: So this is National Lab assessment comparing SIPs on the left, a foreign SIP to a two by four and two by six framing options. And I highlight the two by six options on the right. The quality and quality installation to by six will have a net 13.7 R value. The typical two by six will be 11 compared to R 14 for the foreign Sep.
00:37:31:24 - 00:37:53:26
Sam Rashkin: So the SIP is two inches thinner, it has more insulation, and if I'm going to try to do the quality installation of all the extra work for grade one and extra inspections and extra quality control it takes to get a quality installation. So when you look at maybe the higher cost point for the ship wall, you have to kind of balance it with all the cost savings.
00:37:53:26 - 00:38:14:12
Sam Rashkin: I don't have to do grade one insulation inspections and quality control insulation. That may save me one to 1500 dollars for the home. All the earth and air barriers are inherently built into the SIPs. I have to do all those with the framing. The rework is less than waste is less. Time could be five, six, seven days less.
00:38:14:12 - 00:38:39:20
Sam Rashkin: And then I want it within the walls that create 30ft² more living space. That's worth maybe $250 a square foot retail. So that's another 10 or $15,000. I have more resilience because the walls are much more impact resistant and much more resistant to fire. They have less air leakage and less embers can get in and much greater quality dimensional accuracy.
00:38:39:22 - 00:39:15:09
Sam Rashkin: Everything about them is higher quality. So all that becomes pretty significant when you start to think about what do I do structurally for this design? And it also affects you how you select a bigger design of your home to have vented attics or vented attics. Vented attic has missing the top side airbag, which to me is a huge hit on the thermal performance of that attic insulation and then often in western markets, will stick the heating and cooling systems up there for a further hit on terms of reduce efficiency and comfort.
00:39:15:09 - 00:39:45:26
Sam Rashkin: So if I go to a vintage attic in my design now, I have all that extra volume and I have this faster construction, more condition space, more efficient, more comfort, more strength, more resilient. Again with the embers. Can't get into the attic and the wall fire and the framing and heavy wind, hurricane and tornado events. The wind can't get into the attic, pressurize it, and just completely destroy the framing.
00:39:45:26 - 00:40:05:10
Sam Rashkin: And so you're just more resilient and you have all the cost savings now all the vents, ridge, soffit, gable. You don't need all the air bearers and you don't need and again, all the cycle time savings that happen. So we just have to start thinking about this. How do we get to zero for lower costs. Which solutions do we make integrating systems in our design.
00:40:05:10 - 00:40:29:19
Sam Rashkin: And you can see basically a vented on the left versus just having a completely six sided assembly, no optimized quality installation for insulation and air tightness. We just have to make our choices and make sure we're considering all the costs and benefit again. Then we have all this volume and a good example of how that volume can be deployed in the design part of the process and integrating systems.
00:40:29:19 - 00:40:52:23
Sam Rashkin: I can make a choice in the design process. You know what, I'm going to trade off the lower level, least valuable condition space my basement for volume above grade in the attic. So I'm going to get rid of the basement, go with the shallow frost protective footing, and then leverage that volume. And it may change my roof configuration a little.
00:40:52:24 - 00:41:12:29
Sam Rashkin: But again, I now have an upper level that might be worth $100 or more square foot. And I got much more simple construction. I don't have to build a basement and all the challenges the basements, so I may save up to 6000. In the basement, I have the gable ends of the wall for free, so I don't have to build those there anyway with the attic.
00:41:12:29 - 00:41:37:12
Sam Rashkin: So that's 1 to 2000 savings. I have to do windows, all the air ceiling and barriers. We mentioned that the attic ceiling interface, all the attic bending, the waste savings, the time savings. And then if I'm adding 800ft², that's worth another $100 a square foot or $150 a square foot, very quickly adding 40 to $60,000 of value, these start to become real significant numbers.
00:41:37:15 - 00:41:58:12
Sam Rashkin: If we're going to get to zero at lower cost, we have to optimize all our decisions, particularly in the front end when we do design, what will be the best strategy for the lowest cost? Getting to zero and the other system needs to be integrated plumbing. You know, my good friend Gary Klein is kind of real innovator with this concept of compact plumbing.
00:41:58:14 - 00:42:21:28
Sam Rashkin: What he does is it creates a concept called the hot water system rectangle. You take every picture, it gets hot water. And wherever it is, you draw a box around it. So you can see over here on the left, this is a this was a habitat for humanity home with a water heater, the garage in the corner. Then you go around because you have to get to this sink over here and you keep going around because you have to get to the bathroom fixtures here.
00:42:21:28 - 00:42:50:14
Sam Rashkin: And that creates the rectangle, which accounts for 80%, roughly the 1600 square foot home. And it's a big rectangle. And what they did was they said, can we optimize this home for plumbing? They got all the plumbing in 2.5% instead of 80%, 30ft² instead of 180ft². So that was a huge reduction. The only trouble was they destroyed the design.
00:42:50:15 - 00:43:15:24
Sam Rashkin: You know, this kitchen is horribly claustrophobic. It's a galley kitchen. It uses way too much valuable real estate that's needed to for the backyard view, not to mention a closet block blocking the backyard view. You wind up with these really awkward spaces for the living room, and look at all the flow that's now in this design. You know, it's just a horrible design.
00:43:15:24 - 00:43:32:12
Sam Rashkin: You cannot do that. And where I will differ with my good friend Gary Klein is I don't care about the kitchen sink. I'm not going to be waiting for hot water as soon as I turn on the kitchen sink. I'm rinsing dishes, I'm using the water, and when it gets hot, I can do the more serious cleaning that that warrants hot water.
00:43:32:12 - 00:43:51:11
Sam Rashkin: I don't care about the scent. So what I would do in this design, you see this domestic hot water heater over here? That's your fender. You want to get rid of that location? And this closet over here is right where I'd switch it right there. And now this becomes my square and it's 13%. I can live with 13%.
00:43:51:12 - 00:44:16:25
Sam Rashkin: All these fixtures will get hot water within seconds. About 20s 15 seconds of hot, hot water. And even the kitchen sinks pretty close to this will get hot water within 20s 15 seconds. This should have been the solution. And so another message here is you can't get so you know, myopic and just so tunnel vision on one concept I'm trying to optimize plumbing.
00:44:16:27 - 00:44:40:25
Sam Rashkin: The solution was as simple as relocating the water heater. And I can make up that pantry and other storage so easily with just some more tweaking this design. And if we do all this, by the way, we can get 1000 $2,000 savings with compact plumbing. So just again, one more integration. And then the last concept, next concept I want to talk about is mass customization.
00:44:40:26 - 00:45:06:10
Sam Rashkin: Again, we talk about this in the module about the future of housing, how we can't afford to build what we're building today. We're building a equivalent of custom tailored clothes that 98% of the 99% of the clothes buying public don't want to pay the extra cost for. So we buy clothes instead. That's mass customized factories. It's mass customized styles, the sizes and get what we want.
00:45:06:11 - 00:45:28:26
Sam Rashkin: So close to what we would get with custom tailored. We're all absolutely happy. I'm going to submit. We can actually get as good or better. We mess customized homes with the same concept we come up with again. Instead of styles and sizes, we have building blocks that we can use over and over again. And because we use them over and over again, we can infuse them with world class expert solutions.
00:45:28:26 - 00:45:50:15
Sam Rashkin: Because the cost of those solutions to health expert to building science, the materials expert, the color expert, the lining expert, all the features that could be optimized for each and every building block are then amortized over so many uses at the actual cost per home. Become so small, and then with mixing and matching we get to strategic design options.
00:45:50:15 - 00:46:09:03
Sam Rashkin: So we want it with what we want. Plenty of choice, plenty of diverse streetscape esthetics, diverse interiors, interiors and savings. So example of a good friend of mine who supplied this kind of concept on a on a small like.
00:46:09:05 - 00:46:32:27
Sam Rashkin: 3040 home subdivision north of Chicago was he had a, B, C, D, f building blocks he used over and over for every single house. So ABCd would be the first floor on the second floor. And those modules will optimize for furniture. They optimize again for lighting, for finishes, for color, for for energy and building science. All this stuff was taken.
00:46:32:27 - 00:46:54:10
Sam Rashkin: And so there you go. And then you wound up with this same concept. You only had this same kitchens and bathrooms over and over again. So you had the exterior building blocks and the interior building blocks and you know, your choices look like this. You can do 2 or 3 stories. You had 2 or 3 trust configurations. You create different looks.
00:46:54:12 - 00:47:26:27
Sam Rashkin: You had two different types of pop out windows. You had 2 or 3 different front porches, a few siding trim combinations, and a few color packages. And the neighborhood looks like this complete. And this is anything but a production housing type of esthetics on the street. It looks like a beautiful, almost, historic street. It's such a beautiful job, and it comes down to the details and all he's doing, he's a pending.
00:47:26:29 - 00:47:56:07
Sam Rashkin: Just as like the wrap around the building blocks, different looks to create the interest. And of course, landscaping is something we teach in the design courses. Critical landscape architecture. Once it matures, it trumps the building architecture. So let's move on to the enclosure imperatives. We have to optimize enclosure. And everyone is probably at this kind of webinar knows the basics.
00:47:56:08 - 00:48:27:20
Sam Rashkin: You've got to optimize moisture, flow, airflow in front of flow, kind of control these at a high, almost militant level in these higher risk buildings. And I will submit you can no longer ignore disaster resistance. So airflow moisture flow, you know, if it's going to come down to managing moisture risk, the most important thing to recognize is that air leakage way trumps diffusion through the sheathing materials, drywall, OSB, whatever it may be.
00:48:27:23 - 00:48:58:16
Sam Rashkin: If you look at a hot, humid climate, you take a four by eight piece of drywall and on top you just have that drywall by itself. And on the bottom you had a one inch hole. All of a sudden, over an entire summer Air-Conditioning season spring, summer and fall, the vapor flow from the exterior to the interior goes in three quarts to seven quarts of water, or ten times greater just with one inch hall in the hot Nicole climate, it's the reverse.
00:48:58:18 - 00:49:26:10
Sam Rashkin: The washer flow going over the winter from the interior to the exterior goes up from one third of port to 30 quarts of water, a hundred times greater vapor flow. So this is really simple. Air leakage is way, way more important than just managing thermal flow. No energy losses or leakages. It's got to also it's imperative for moisture control.
00:49:26:10 - 00:49:56:03
Sam Rashkin: And all the air leakage numbers we'll talk about are derived mostly from the energy loss considerations. So there they are for everything from zero ready to version three of Energy Star to the ICC codes 2012 to 2018 and passive House. And you have this crazy litany of targets when I'm going to suggest everyone should be at the lowest point for the basic program zero ready, Energy Star and the ICC codes.
00:49:56:03 - 00:50:22:06
Sam Rashkin: Passive House, I think, is pushing too far for the mainstream builders. I think it's great to have that as an ultimate target, but everyone should be at 1.5 and forget what you can do. More leaky construction due to the energy losses. I care about moisture control. I care about indoor air quality. So think about all the dust, pollen, and moisture that comes through.
00:50:22:08 - 00:50:46:15
Sam Rashkin: The more leaky the construction. I want it tighter, if nothing else, just for health reasons. And then greater disaster assistance. The more air can get in, the more risk you have to fire to smoke. Intrusion again, for health reasons, the more impact you have from wind and tornadoes and hurricanes that can pressurize the home. Just let's keep our homes at 1.5 ACH 50 because it's so readily achievable.
00:50:46:16 - 00:51:13:06
Sam Rashkin: I know it sounds like a kind of a big leap for a lot of builders today are struggling to get to 3 or 4, but once the the best practices and tried and true methods are embedded in the workforce that you choose, it's not a hard target. So this would be how we get to zero cost effectively, because it will minimize other requirements or minimize heating cooling requirements.
00:51:13:08 - 00:51:42:06
Sam Rashkin: So next part becomes a thermal flow with the enclosure. And this is the array of choices you normally see from conventional framing to Vance framing to staggered studs, double wall and structural insulated panels, and continuous insulation on the right as the last option and the thing at the bottom bottom that included where the framing factors. But a construction instruction helped me calculate just the net effect of framing factor for each of these choices.
00:51:42:11 - 00:52:04:08
Sam Rashkin: And you go from 25 to 30% framing factor all again to 2%. I'm going to suggest this block of choices that excessive thermal bridging, I think even 10% is to higher framing factor. So I think anything in this block has has excessive thermal bridging. And also every one of these options has the highest amount of moisture control risk.
00:52:04:08 - 00:52:38:02
Sam Rashkin: Because again you're creating more insulation and a cul de surface. And you're relying on the field practices to ensure that you have no vapor flow that's not wanted and that the insulation is installed at grade one or and it's just so much more cost, time and effort. Everyone should be moving to one of these two options, which is some sort of panel with a structural insulated panel or other factory made panel system that's high performance and low thermal bridging or continuous insulation.
00:52:38:04 - 00:53:00:29
Sam Rashkin: In the case of SIPs, you get the ensured quality installed insulation. You also get it for the outboard sheathing, more or less. The inboard insulation in the cavity still is reliant on the field practices of the insulation. Chris. But also this minimizes your moisture risk by, in the case of SIPs having no moisture flow at all in a sandwich assembly.
00:53:00:29 - 00:53:24:19
Sam Rashkin: In the continuous insulation, if you check if you pick the right thickness, then you've reduced the temperature enough to negate the moisture risk if you pick the right thickness. And that's another question. So these are the two options where you should be for me. Again, what I like to call attention to is just how many moving parts you're going to manage with continuous insulation.
00:53:24:19 - 00:53:44:17
Sam Rashkin: One is know you have all the different layers that you have to install in the field. And we know we're losing trades and we know that managing quality is harder. And then when we get the right fixes and most climates climate zones 4 or 5 and higher, now you're going to need an inch and a half of insulation, or at least no.
00:53:44:19 - 00:54:13:05
Sam Rashkin: And then you start to need screws, as you see here. You know, you can't just kneel the air gap right, right, right through, or you have to manage the extra thickness. And all those complications go away with the panels. It's inherently high value, have zero risk or moisture vapor flow going through the assembly, better dimensional accuracy, but a strength that has inherent quality in the assembly versus construction.
00:54:13:11 - 00:54:37:07
Sam Rashkin: You have added volume we talked about before in the walls and the attic. And less carbon, less about half of what you have in the framed assembly. On the saving side, cycle time, inspections, waste rework and trades. So just you need to add all these pieces together and then see how the costs work out. But I'm going to I'm pretty confident more and more we're going to be moving to some factory made panel choices.
00:54:37:07 - 00:55:02:28
Sam Rashkin: But this this system of cobbling together all these moving parts in the field we can't afford from islands. And then finally, disaster risk are so insanely high, the frequency magnitude of storms is just going up exponentially. I can do a whole session on just where we are at with disaster risk. Enough to say the no maps will tell you there's nowhere to hide.
00:55:02:29 - 00:55:44:16
Sam Rashkin: Virtually all the US is exposed to these growing disaster risks. These are billion dollar climate disasters mapped for droughts, winter storms, cyclones and tornadoes, flooding, wildfires, severe storms, rainstorms. We're just wherever you go with risk. So you have to make choices when you pick the enclosure that are good risk management choices. And so when I look at all this again, I'm going to just again start saying at some point we have to break away from 150 year old technology and use advanced wall systems show SIPs here.
00:55:44:22 - 00:56:18:03
Sam Rashkin: There are other choices you can make, but once you do that, when you optimize performance, there's no pathway for vapor flow through it. Sandwich assembly like a SIP there. Inherently, at one one and a half a 50 max, you have to work hard to go above one. Really hard to get above one and a half 50 the thermal flow again, get 5% thermal bridging, which is, I think, where you want to be or less, and the quality you don't want to rely on quality field crews with the massive stress on them.
00:56:18:03 - 00:56:43:08
Sam Rashkin: We'll talk more about in a moment. So you want assembly versus construction. And then when you have such a inherent high quality assembly that's dimensionally accurate, all your finishes fit and trim your drywall, everything goes on faster, better, cheaper. And on the value side, you have more condition space, more disaster resistance. Again for fires, for wind impact, you know, it's just the resistance where you need to be.
00:56:43:09 - 00:57:11:26
Sam Rashkin: And on the productivity side, you have cycle time reduction and waste reduction. So at some point we have to factor all these cost factors and value factors into our analytics to make the lowest true cost choice. And we need enclosures that are ready to deliver zero that are at lowest true cost. Okay. And also I speak to my friend the Precast Concrete Foundation.
00:57:11:29 - 00:57:42:26
Sam Rashkin: This is insane. He's a 70% less concrete and it's faster better. And it has so many impressive cost savings cycle time. It goes in five, six, seven days faster. It's stronger. It's $5,000 concrete version versus 3000 installed. Almost like a bond being configuration that has greater strength. It's better moisture protection because it is 5,002nd crate versus 3000 psi poured in place in the field.
00:57:42:28 - 00:58:03:28
Sam Rashkin: They have a clear path to the drain tile for better drainage of the sub slab moisture. It's much more dimensionally accurate. You have more usable space and a finish basement because of the ribs, have the still caps, you know, the stud caps that you can nail the drywall right to them. You have to build a whole separate wall.
00:58:04:03 - 00:58:32:15
Sam Rashkin: You can construct it in winter. And again, the savings from cycle time and all the integrated insulation. And for so again, these systems I think really need to be looked at carefully if you want to get to zero lower cost. And lastly the window window is so critical. It is this funnel effect. After you do a great opaque wall assembly, the windows, this obvious funnel that you have to manage thermal flow and maintain comfort.
00:58:32:17 - 00:58:56:09
Sam Rashkin: And I'll call your attention to to some analysis. I pulled together from a web tool where you can look at what is the net effect of whole R value for different wall assemblies are 18 or 30 9 or 16. This case, and a window that is a double pane window .30 you value and a triple pain .15 you value window.
00:58:56:11 - 00:59:17:02
Sam Rashkin: So the energy star window and top triple pane window below. And I had 15% window to wall area. The numbers would be even stronger for the moving to a more high performance window, as I add more window to wall area, as our builders are prone to do today. So what happens with a, you know, a six inch or 18 wall?
00:59:17:09 - 00:59:50:08
Sam Rashkin: When I count for an energy star window, the effect of our value drops RLM or at 40% reduction in the whole wall from what it rated for the wall assembly. And if I go to our seven, I'm 20% on only I lose half basically of the reduction by going to the triple paint. And what's really substantial is the net are 14.5 of 15 is just as good as an R, 39 inch, 13 inch wall with an energy star window.
00:59:50:09 - 01:00:17:29
Sam Rashkin: I get almost an identical performance and look at our R 60 wall like a 20 inch thick insulated wall. If I put a triple paying window, I'm within 2.5 hour value of that wall assembly that only has an energy store window. In cold climates, we just have to be thinking about moving to better windows, and that will save money on the back end on on right size heating and cooling systems.
01:00:18:00 - 01:00:56:23
Sam Rashkin: And and it just just leads a tremendous amount and performance. So we have two manufacturers that are making really builder grade cost effective triple pane windows, Joe Land and Prova. From my sources out there telling me that they have a triple pane window that's a really very affordable costuming above the normal double pane window. So start in climates not just automatically going to the dual pane window, but some manufacturers are really working hard to come up with really cost effective triple pane options.
01:00:56:23 - 01:01:23:14
Sam Rashkin: And then there's also the thin triple, which looks like it's going to hopefully get to market in the near future. But basically they replace the normal middle glass layer from traditional glass to the thin glass like you would use for an LED TV. That means the extrusion is no thicker than for a bill pane glass, which saves the manufacturer's cost to retool the plant.
01:01:23:14 - 01:01:47:15
Sam Rashkin: And there's also some drops and krypton gas that allows for some cost savings. So these windows expect to come in at much lower cost or five to or ten. And so maybe we'll have even more options for how to get to triple glazing in climate zones five and higher possible climate zone for moving on to HVAC is the next thing you have to optimize.
01:01:47:19 - 01:02:16:10
Sam Rashkin: I'm not going to go through all these numbers, but to say that 7,100% of the field measured HVAC systems evidenced at least one performance compromising fault and duck leakage was two thirds to 100% testing high in this very substantial sample. This is a study done by National Renewable Energy Laboratory. And and sizing was a big issue for 30 to 90 plus percent of poems were testing way too high.
01:02:16:13 - 01:02:44:13
Sam Rashkin: So let's talk about the cost of that. When you look at how you design systems, you have location, condition, floor area, orientation, mechanical system, location, and then the the thermal assemblies. So we already talked about how rightsizing a home is a huge cost saver in terms of per square foot cost, but then it also saves you money on condition area that needs to be heated and cooled for a right size HVAC system.
01:02:44:13 - 01:03:08:20
Sam Rashkin: And same thing. Talked about optimizing the enclosure walls, roofs and the glass. That will also substantially reduce your heating and cooling system. But let's talk about also orientation and where we locate the heating cooling system. So this is just some engineering calculations. Just looking at the same house one with a south orientation and top and the west orientation and bottom.
01:03:08:21 - 01:03:32:20
Sam Rashkin: So you go from 84,000 KB per hour to 60,000 CBCS for our. And pretty quickly you have a two ton savings in the system. So that could be substantial cost savings both on the equipment and the ducks just by getting proper orientation that we talked about earlier. And then we talked about when we go to addicts now, all of our heating cooling inside the condition space.
01:03:32:20 - 01:04:07:28
Sam Rashkin: So here's another calculation for the same home with with the system inside, the condition space on top and in the unconditioned space on top and in the condition space below. So you would the again the load from 74,000 to 60,000. So you save a ton over time on the heating cooling system size. So these are big cost savings that derive from doing all the other things we mentioned about the design in the system and condition space for plus using the better enclosure plus right size in the home.
01:04:07:28 - 01:04:30:25
Sam Rashkin: All those things have a big difference. And once we have a great enclosure, we don't have to worry about bringing the ducks to the extremities. That's just a waste of money and once. So it needs much smaller ducts because we have a much smaller BTU load in each room, and we don't need to bring them to the extremities, so we can maybe save a few thousand on the duct system.
01:04:30:27 - 01:04:52:29
Sam Rashkin: And then there are new kinds of technology like plug and play docs. This is one system that basically where you got the plenum, you just basically this holes punched into the box, and there's these special plugs that create their tight seals. And then the the duct snap into them airtight automatically. And then you do home runs to each room.
01:04:53:00 - 01:05:21:28
Sam Rashkin: Each each step does about 20, 2530 cfm of airflow. So if needs 60 CFM you run two, it needs 91 three. And you basically have a great mixing. You have airtight construction without having to factor in the quality of the workforce that goes in there type just naturally, and it's just much more simple to lay out. It's so small that that's can easily go in the conditioned space within any kind of normal trust.
01:05:21:28 - 01:05:47:19
Sam Rashkin: Joyce or I would pop out the hole for the ducks. So this is just something you need to think about as another way to get to leverage lower cost for zero and moving on to productivity. The trade crisis is not going to go away. The The Home Builder Institute's latest calculations over 700,000 new workers needed each year to meet the demand and combat the shortage of 1.5 million homes.
01:05:47:19 - 01:06:11:29
Sam Rashkin: So that's pretty stunning when you also look at this statistic that for every five aging workers retiring out of the workforce construction workforce, only two in the pipeline coming in behind them. So this is a huge cliff that we're coming to. And the average work age is getting older and older now almost 43. And this is how we built the can afford to do this.
01:06:12:02 - 01:06:35:25
Sam Rashkin: We used to build this 150 years ago, and we can't build with the same lack of productivity that we had over all this over 150 years. Not to improve productivity. You seem the same. Working conditions pretty unsafe for the worker or the waste products. Turn around the job site and the supply. Just sitting there on the ground, probably getting wet.
01:06:35:26 - 01:07:00:18
Sam Rashkin: We can do better. This is the only industry to have a negative productivity over the last 3 or 4 decades. This is a study done by McKinsey and company. If you look at manufacturing, it's almost double the productivity gains. More importantly, McKinsey and company quantifies that the productivity gap as $200 billion that can be closed by applying advanced manufacturing methods.
01:07:00:18 - 01:07:33:09
Sam Rashkin: And also it's the least digitized industry. Another study by McKinsey found construction absolutely the lowest in history, except for agriculture and hunting. And we look at how to what extent it's using digitization. It's almost all right. It's hardly deploying any amount of really effective use of digitization, which can do so many things. If I build a house virtually on my computer before constructing it, just like every other product is done, you would use cycle time.
01:07:33:10 - 01:07:53:26
Sam Rashkin: You have precise building materials that you need. You can schedule better, get much better quality accuracy, installing the field when everything's completely worked out on the computer first, you know, all the wiring, all the duck work or the plumbing and the framing, the connections. When it's all configured on a computer precisely, it goes much better in the field.
01:07:53:26 - 01:08:25:10
Sam Rashkin: The integration of all the systems, the machine learning. Then you save on the back end with productivity less waste, less rework. So again, in the cost crisis, these kinds of benefits cannot be not leveraged. And all this these productivity factors can be addressed with systems built now, the shrinking labor force, the lack of productivity, the lack of digitization, going to systems built is a huge way to just finally address those devastating shortfalls in the industry.
01:08:25:17 - 01:08:52:20
Sam Rashkin: There are a lot of options, from framing kits to panels. We mentioned SIPs. They're also insulated concrete panels, conventional frame panels, precast concrete. Modular is volumetric building. Or you can mix modular panels like modular for the high trade, concentrated spaces like kitchens and bathrooms and panels for the rest of the rooms. And then there's 3D printing popping up in more and more places, making a mark.
01:08:52:22 - 01:09:02:13
Sam Rashkin: Some top 15 builders in the country. Centex communities with street printing in Phoenix.
01:09:02:16 - 01:09:29:24
Sam Rashkin: I think it's who's the other builder in Texas using 3D printing, it's faster to do systems, build useful time savings 30, 40, 50 days and eliminate some of the trades. It's better quality, better accuracy, often stronger construction. Need to use actually more material for framing it. And it does have cost savings for time, rework, waste and production at scale.
01:09:29:26 - 01:09:53:13
Sam Rashkin: So the big savings I want to talk about is time. You know, you still have the engineering permits and approvals you have to do, whether it's systems built or site built. But the big savings is when you go into actually putting the site the lot development and foundations, the difference with systems built the same time in the plant building the home, you're not waiting for that to happen to start construction.
01:09:53:13 - 01:10:19:21
Sam Rashkin: And then when it comes to working in the field to actually get the home on the ground, you're just assembling all the components that are made in factory versus complete building construction, on site build. And then you have all the site restoration process with building normal site building. You don't have a system building. The net benefits about 3,050% time savings, which is a huge cost benefit if it's 30 days.
01:10:19:21 - 01:10:51:02
Sam Rashkin: And we look at research on cost of operation for builders per day, 5 to $800, that's just just for just a cycle. Time savings is 15,000 to 24,000. And this doesn't count the velocity benefits. If I'm taking 30 less days to build for each additional home I can build in a year, if my margins are 10% on a $400,000 home, that's $40,000 a benefit for additional home.
01:10:51:02 - 01:11:13:05
Sam Rashkin: I can build. Just the every part of being more productive is so substantial. On the cost saving side, it's the carrying cost. It's the increase of of production and the cost mitigation for so many different aspects of what you have to do to operate your business. Again, your operational costs, on the profitability side, your cash flow is better.
01:11:13:08 - 01:11:36:25
Sam Rashkin: You're able to price more competitive because it's less time that you have to carry with uncertainty. You're you're shortening the bandwidth that reconstruction, you can price much more competitive. And the velocity get more sales, more closings for every home you sell because of the hands velocity. That's a huge impact on your bottom line and risk. You don't. You're building faster.
01:11:36:25 - 01:12:11:03
Sam Rashkin: You adapt to the market faster, less risk with inflation and all the uncertainties of the economy. So this is a very substantial impact on business, and it's nowhere included in the bidding process. When I compete, systems built option with a conventional framing option. These substantial cost benefits are completely missing. We got to get those lower costs and look at how much systems building is used in the US compared to the rest of the major developed countries like UK, Germany, Japan and Sweden.
01:12:11:09 - 01:12:43:22
Sam Rashkin: Is not the poster child for just how much systems building can be used. On this study done in 2019, 85% of new homes were systems built. So let me sum it up and just simply say that if you're going to get a zero for lower cost, the big message today is most of the presentations I will see around the country and the webinars and everything I observe is so focused just on the energy strategies.
01:12:43:25 - 01:13:11:27
Sam Rashkin: But housing is a system just as much as the house is a system in building science, housing the system, and it has to optimize first design and then product configuration. We can't afford all the customization. We have to configure the product such so much more cost effectively, effectively than we're doing. And then you have to optimize performance. No closures, mechanical, electrical, plumbing, health and all those aspects of performance.
01:13:11:27 - 01:13:24:28
Sam Rashkin: And then the construction process we cannot afford to build with complete lack of any innovation in the enclosure space. We have to use advanced.
01:13:25:01 - 01:13:58:28
Sam Rashkin: Systems, build choices, options. We have to integrate all this to get to zero at lower cost. You won't get there just by optimizing those factors that I mentioned and showed you. And beyond. All this has to take and take into account. Now in in housing 2.0, I just show you the summary of just tabulations I've done for just trying to take these building blocks and really crunch some numbers, and comes up to about 150,000 at $250,000 of added value for enhancing our home so it can go to zero.
01:13:59:01 - 01:14:23:11
Sam Rashkin: We can do this 15 to 20, 25,000 max. So we're talking like ten x benefits that we can't ignore anymore. If we're going to go to zero for lower cost, we have to we have to recognize all these value benefits as well. And we don't we don't in in the marketplace. And we don't look at how these homes are sold.
01:14:23:12 - 01:14:53:12
Sam Rashkin: So this is just a plug for the next session. We're doing seminar number five, translating the hidden value zero proven behavior change techniques. Once we've once we do all the optimized strategies we talked about today, then we have to communicate the value. We don't do that. Everything falls apart. So we'll talk about seven tried and true principles for changing behavior that are commonly neglected, and how to apply them to ensure customers value.
01:14:53:13 - 01:15:14:01
Sam Rashkin: High performance helps when consumers understand value, price becomes so much less important. Famous sales axiom. So thank you very much for attending today. I hope this made some sense. And Mike, I hand it back off to you.
01:15:14:03 - 01:15:43:22
Mike Collignon: All right. Thank you sir. We're going to go ahead and get to the questions which we do have a handful of already. And if you do have other questions please send those in via the chat box. So first question, Sam from Zoran. What is the difference, if any, between zero energy and net zero energy homes?
01:15:43:24 - 01:16:19:04
Sam Rashkin: The the biggest concepts out there are no net energy and zero net carbon. And so zero energy and zero net energy are kind of the same thing. That's when your operational energy to run the home is offset by the renewable energy that's either produced on site or from the other options. We talked about microgrids, utility renewables offsets. So zero net energy is just when your onsite energy is offset by renewables.
01:16:19:05 - 01:16:54:27
Sam Rashkin: Now the complications will get into when you have electric versus homes that are electric and fossil fuel, like let's say gas water heaters and gas space heaters. How do you offset the fossil fuel use for those uses? So it's a little tricky in those spaces, but essentially that's zero net energy. But zero net carbon is when you also consider the embodied carbon, which now as you get to higher and higher performance homes, is greater than the operational carbon, carbon that's results from the fuels that are used to provide the electricity or onsite fuel use in our home.
01:16:54:27 - 01:17:14:12
Sam Rashkin: So what we have to recognize is more and more importantly, is that embodied carbon is just this significant increasing force for getting to zero. And so those are the two main concepts zero mid energy or zero net carbon.
01:17:14:14 - 01:17:31:02
Mike Collignon: Well, and there's a follow up question that he's got on this. And that is do zero energy not carbon. But do zero energy homes have to be all electric or get there while still using some amount of gas?
01:17:31:04 - 01:18:01:02
Sam Rashkin: You know, I, I hate to get into all this granular distinction, but essentially, since utilities are only by back a very small amount above what you consume in renewable power, if you have a zero energy home that uses gas for space heating, let's say water heating and or cooking utility will only buy back the amount of electricity that you consume on site.
01:18:01:08 - 01:18:26:02
Sam Rashkin: And so it's a zero energy house, ostensibly, but you can't put enough solar to offset the fossil fuel use. Now, if you put it in an electric car and charge a car, it gets more and more complicated because is that still zero in the G house and not zero? So basically what I, what I like to advocate is people not complicate things.
01:18:26:02 - 01:18:55:25
Sam Rashkin: I believe the more simply keep it, the more likely we will have to transform the market. So zero energy houses any house that's built so efficient you can offset all or nearly all of the energy with renewable power. And what I'm comfortable with is in the future, if you have fossil fuel, let's say gas, water heater or gas heating, you can easily, at very low disruption, change out to an electric heat pump or heat pump, water heater and eventually the house can get to zero.
01:18:55:25 - 01:19:06:12
Sam Rashkin: So I'll stick with that definition, just not just to avoid the complexity of that starts to confuse everybody involved.
01:19:06:14 - 01:19:36:16
Mike Collignon: Well, and I'm I'm smiling because some of you may or may not know this, but Sam is actually a guy who went on a tour of of seeking answers on vernacular, and I that was my first reaction with them. I think it was 2014 or something like that. You were basically on a tour of words and trying to define words and get on the one page with words.
01:19:36:16 - 01:19:42:23
Mike Collignon: And so I'm laughing as we're having this discussion here, because I remember those days.
01:19:42:25 - 01:19:51:02
Sam Rashkin: Yeah, let's let's just all keep it simple. And, you know, anything close to.
01:19:51:05 - 01:20:21:12
Sam Rashkin: New homes that meet the any variation of these definitions is a great thing. It's a great thing. And they're easily converted to a full zero in the future because conversion to electric is pretty easy. It's not like I have to change up my walls or I have to change out my, you know, rebuild my whole attic differently. Once you get the enclosure right, the rest can come along for the ride incrementally, without a lot of cost and disruption.
01:20:21:12 - 01:20:27:02
Sam Rashkin: And that's that's, I think, what we should care about. And still some more.
01:20:27:05 - 01:20:45:28
Mike Collignon: Questions on this topic. So Zoran also wanted to know how soon you expect that all houses we're talking existing and new will go all electric.
01:20:46:01 - 01:21:18:14
Sam Rashkin: Never, nor should they, but I expect something like 85% of all houses to be all electric, probably in the 25, 20, 35, 2040 window will be about 85%. But, you know, there's a there's lots of reasons and for why you can still use gas, natural gas heating in certain locations.
01:21:18:16 - 01:21:44:29
Sam Rashkin: No, I'm not militant. No, I think that's you know, the more we I just wrote an article for Green Building Media about why climates not the greatest existential threat. And I tried to make a case that well-being is in that we have this horrible reality that we're so polarized because we don't know each other, we don't listen deeply, we don't get seen deeply, we don't hear deeply.
01:21:44:29 - 01:22:14:22
Sam Rashkin: And and so I'm not I know I'm going to offend like half the country if I tell them they can't have gas cooking or they maybe can't have gas spacing, or I'm going to fend half the country if I tell them I have to use electric vehicles by 2035, I don't need to. The user experience with with electric every step of the way is so much better.
01:22:14:24 - 01:22:38:18
Sam Rashkin: Let's just be better. Communicating the better experiences and providing market based incentives that promote them to offset all the subsidies that go to fossil fuels. So there's ways we can get there without offending. And that being sounded like we're just not listening to how much suffering is going on with those lacking well-being. I know we can get there.
01:22:38:18 - 01:22:50:18
Sam Rashkin: Just being by actually listening to people and not trying to take away freedoms and not try to impose all these extra taxes, that just ways we can do this.
01:22:50:21 - 01:23:12:01
Mike Collignon: So here's the follow up then on. And David wanted to know can our current infrastructure. We're talking grid and power lines, substations and even a homes panel support all electric homes and electric vehicles. Or are we going to run into some problems?
01:23:12:03 - 01:23:43:17
Sam Rashkin: Well, if you build the homes with such low loads and you retrofit the existing buildings and houses, and you are smart about how you use electric vehicles, if you know the grid has tremendous different capacity during off peak than on peak hours, and we're so flexible how we can charge our cars, you know, we don't need to charge them during peak air conditioning hours at peak even heating hours.
01:23:43:17 - 01:24:00:14
Sam Rashkin: We can figure this. We can figure this out how we can do this. And and the grids being augmented with renewable power. So we this is not something I'm worried about. It's just about being smarter.
01:24:00:16 - 01:24:19:07
Mike Collignon: All right. Let's go to the attic real quick here Deborah wanted to know what is your opinion of netted cellulose with a vent channel above it?
01:24:19:10 - 01:24:48:18
Sam Rashkin: If it pencils out and it makes sense, fine. But when you do a net cellulose or fiberglass or any of those options. Now I have to have an air barrier below it because I can't allow vapor flow to get through the cold surface on the other side of the insulation, and then on top of the vapor barrier and an ignition barrier, because it's in the attic and it has to meet the fire code as well.
01:24:48:21 - 01:25:07:14
Sam Rashkin: And so all that goes away if I just use that panel assembly and I have grade one insulation and there is no path for vapor flow, it comes down to managing the ridge connection between the panels where they meet. And that's where we ran into issues. In the case of CIPs, Juneau, Alaska, maybe 1 or 2 other places.
01:25:07:14 - 01:25:27:20
Sam Rashkin: So but if it pencils out to do the cellulose with the knitting and then the air barrier and the barrier, then that's the choice you make. I just look at all the numbers, and I just want to make sure all the costs are being calculated to get to the lowest way to get to zero and any way you can get there.
01:25:27:20 - 01:25:53:02
Sam Rashkin: But I just I'm confident that the attic is so superior to event attic and not having a six sided assembly and all the volume losses and everything else that we talked about. So, so just pencil it out. And you know, my my intuition is that the panel assemblies are going to be hard to beat.
01:25:53:05 - 01:26:00:21
Mike Collignon: That's one I think there's going to be a somewhat easy question. Our air vs supposed to have dedicated ducts or are they tied into the HVAC?